Troubled Waters: Rescuing South Africa from a Tariff Disaster

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FMF Policy Agenda

Summary

The paper dissects the flawed logic of tariffs, which pursue incompatible goals: tax revenue, local industry protection, or geopolitical leverage. These objectives distort markets, hinder productivity, and encourage rent-seeking, with no single tariff policy achieving all aims effectively.

Instead, free trade offers transformative benefits: lower prices, enhanced productivity, increased foreign investment, and job creation.

South Africa must diversify trade partnerships, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and BRICS, while avoiding state-managed trade deals that often fail to deliver. To counter U.S. tariffs and domestic stagnation, the paper proposes bold reforms: repealing post-2019 tariffs, instituting a five-year sunset clause on existing tariffs, abolishing the International Trade Administration Commission, streamlining customs, and liberalising capital controls. It also advocates enshrining trade openness as a constitutional principle.

By embracing unilateral liberalisation, South Africa can mitigate foreign protectionism, boost competitiveness, and position itself as a regional trade hub. Rejecting retaliatory tariffs, South Africa must prioritise open markets to reclaim economic dynamism, trusting in trade as a driver of peace, cooperation, and shared prosperity. As Bastiat cautioned: “When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.”

Contributors

Dr Morné Malan

Senior Associate

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The views expressed in the article are the author’s and are not necessarily shared by the members of the Foundation. This article may be republished without prior consent but with acknowledgement to the author.

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