The news media widely circulated the claim that one million species will become extinct by 2050 due to global warming. However, the study published in Nature looked only at 1,103 plant and animal species in five regions. It concluded that about 15 to 37 percent of the 1,103 species studied would become extinct.
The study does not support the conclusion that a million species will become extinct, says Iain Murray of the Competitive Enterprise Institute:
Moreover, the study uses the “species-area relationship” rule that small habitats support fewer species. However, empirical evidence does not always support the rule, says Murray:
Additionally, the assumption that global warming will destroy habitat doesn’t hold; atmospheric increases in carbon dioxide have led to a six percent increase in vegetation, 42 percent of which occurred in the Amazon rain forests.
So far, there have been just over 1,000 documented species extinctions since 1600.
Sources: Iain Murray, Virtually Extinct, Competitive Enterprise Institute; James Gorman, Scientist Predict Widespread Extinction by Global Warming, January 8, 2004; based on Chris D. Thomas, et al., Extinction Risk from Climate Change, Nature, January 8, 2004.
For CEI text http://www.cei.org/gencon/019,03797.cfm
For NY Times text http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/08/science/08CLIM.html
For Nature text http://www.nature.com/cgi-
taf/dynapage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v427/n6970/index.html
For more on Endangered Species
http://eteam.ncpa.org/policy/Wildlife_Issues/Endangered_Species/
For more on Global Warming Impacts and Responses
http://eteam.ncpa.org/policy/Global_Warming/Impacts_and_Responses/
FMF Policy Bulletin/ 20 January 2004
