Some environmental advocates claim that human population growth causes intolerable pollution and will result in a scarcity of key natural resources and mass starvation. Others have called for international programs to slow or reverse population growth and for governmental controls on natural resource use.
The origin of these claims can be traced to Thomas Malthus’ “Essay on the Principle of Population,” first published in 1798. According to Malthus, “the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.”
As a result, he concluded, “humanity must perpetually exist in a state of misery, as population tends to invariably expand to the point that food supplies are at the subsistence level.”
The birthrate in many developed countries is now substantially lower than the minimum required to replace the population (an average of 2.1 births per women). In less developed areas the fertility rate has also fallen dramatically and continues to decline. Among the reasons:
The growth rate has decreased since the early 1960s, reaching 1.2 percent in 2001. If this trend continues, the world’s population will likely stabilize and perhaps even begin declining before the end of this century.
Source: David Deming, Malthus Reconsidered, Brief Analysis No. 469 March 22, 2004.
For text http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba469/ba469.pdf
For more on Sustainable Development http://eteam.ncpa.org/policy/International_Issues/Sustainable_Development/
FMF Policy Bulletin\23 March 2004
