It is now almost a foregone conclusion that a brief recession will hit the U.S. early this year. This coming storm requires immediate action by President-elect George W. Bush.
However, Bush could embrace dynamic scoring, which takes into account the impact of tax cuts on economic variables, which tends to reduce the budgetary impact of tax cuts. Normally, budget projections assume tax cuts reduce revenues dollar-for-dollar, regardless of their impact on saving, investment or growth.
There probably is not enough time to be ready on January 20 to send a tax bill and revised budget to Congress. The official administration budget for fiscal year 2002 is now being put together by Bill Clinton.
Thus the earliest that a tax cut could be enacted is early spring, and it probably wouldn’t have any significant impact on the economy for several more months. At this point, it will be too late for it to have a counter-cyclical effect. For that to happen, the tax cut would already need to have been passed into law and made effective from January 1.
Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, December 20, 2000.
For text http://www.ncpa.org/oped/bartlett.html
For more on Dynamic Scoring http://www.ncpa.org/pi/taxes/tax22.html#4
